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The Data-Driven Realtor – Leveraging advanced analytics, I provide a proprietary scattergram analysis to give you unparalleled insights into your specific home or market, ensuring every decision is data-backed and strategic.
Home Renovation Advisor – Whether you're planning a high-end renovation or managing contractor relations, I'm here to guide you with expert advice to maximize your investment and streamline the process.
Exclusive Off-Market Access – I proactively search for hidden opportunities, knocking on doors and making personal calls each week to uncover off-market properties that meet your unique criteria.
Financial Strategist – With over 20 years of experience in real estate investing, lending, and rehabbing, I specialize in navigating financing and tax strategies to help clients secure favorable rates, increase profits, and preserve wealth for themselves and beneficiaries.
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Executive Summary
The real estate market was in a summer slumber ☀️🏡. Days on market were long, list-to-ask ratios were relaxed, and sales prices cooled off. Discover the secrets behind August's sleepy trends! 🕵️♂️🔍
Nationally, we saw inflation continue it's downward trajectory but unemployment has started to tick upward. The Federal Reserve mandate, to keep inflation around 2% while maximizing employment, means there is a high probability of rates continuing to drop in the near future.
In the Bay Area, despite tech layoffs rose to their highest quarterly total in over a year. Additionally, election season is upon us with fear, uncertainty, and doubt of the economic outlook, resulting in technology giants stock prices falling from their spring highs. This resulted in buyers re-evaluating their downpayment plans. In the end, many of our buyers did not find any inventory that inspired them to make a purchase.
What impact will this have on the real estate market in the San Francisco Bay Area in September? With interest rates returning to levels not seen in 1.5 years, a significant number of affluent buyers coming back from international vacations, and students back in school, we predict that buyers will shift their attention back to purchasing and selling, leading to an increase in sale prices this autumn.
KEY TAKE AWAYS...
SALES PRICES? San Mateo County outperformed the rest of the Bay Area as many regions experienced another month of declining price per square foot. In contrast, highly sought-after neighborhoods and meticulously maintained homes continued to command record-breaking prices.
SALES VOLUME? Sales volume peaked in April 2024 and has dropped throughout the summer.
MORTGAGE RATES? Lowest they've been since January 2023!! Pair this with bank relationship pricing and you can be in the low 5% range.
Is now a good time to sell or buy?
For well-marketed and well-priced homes, expect multiple offers.
End of summer vacations and low interest rates will enable the Fall to be our next best time to sell in 2024, prior to elections.
Check out two of my blogs for how to sell your home in a high interest rate environment and 6 key questions to ask when selling your home in 2024.
Off Market Properties:
San Mateo (Aragon) (2,870 sqft) - 3 bed, 2.5 bath, 2-car garage
San Mateo (Aragon) (3,050 sqft) - 4 bed, 3 bath, 1-car garage
San Mateo (San Mateo Knolls) (2,300 sqft) - 4 bed, 3 bath, 2-car garage
San Mateo (Beresford) (1,100 sqft) - 3 bed, 1 bath, 1-car garage
San Mateo (4 PLEX) - Two 1 bed, two studios
Santa Cruz (East) - (2,100 sqft) 4 bed, 5 bath, 1-car garage on oversized lot
San Francisco (Candlestick Point) - (800 sqft) 1 bed, 1 bath, condo
San Bruno (Crestmoor Park) - (1,300 sqft) 3 bed, 2 bath, 2-car garage
....
Want the full list? Feel free to reach out directly to me (650.451.8763).
Table of Contents:
How Are The San Francisco Bay Area Real Estate Markets?
Overall, real estate trends in the SF Bay Area suggest that sales prices decreased for the second consecutive month in August. Factors such as the election season and excessive hype around Artificial Intelligence may have a dampening effect on sales prices.
What could improve or increase home prices? Lower mortgage rates, that we've not seen in over 1.5 years, along with reduced "work from home" mandates by many local tech companies could increase more buying and selling as workers need to be closer to their offices again.
The below graphics shows all five counties' and the *Mid-Peninsula's pending sales organized by home types and price levels. The price tiers under each home type that saw the highest volume of pending sales per county are highlighted in yellow.
*Mid-Peninsula = Atherton, Belmont, Burlingame, Foster City, Hillsborough, Menlo Park, Palo Alto, Portola Valley, Redwood City, Redwood Shores, San Carlos, San Mateo, and Woodside.
SF Bay Area Real Estate Trends - Month over Month (MoM)
The charts below are month-by-month heat maps of pricing in the SF Bay Area. They are grouped by county and property type (Condo, Single Family Home, Townhouse). The metrics are Price Per Square Foot, Days On Market, how many sold, and the List To Sales Price Ratio. Green highlighted cells indicate items keeping prices up in comparison to previous month's metrics. Red highlighted cells indicate the opposite, i.e downward pressure on sales price which favor Buyers more.
(Click on each county's data to make larger). Make county / location bigger to see the MoM data better.
SF Bay Area Real Estate Trends - Year over Year (YoY)
Here's the data to support the year over year price growth (supply versus demand) we are currently experiencing.
Inventory - 20 Years vs. 10 Years
Every year we see active and sold inventory go up then down, a predictable cadence. How high or low is dependent on the next metric, Months of Inventory or the rate of change in inventory being sold.
We are above historically low inventory levels; active inventory is now exceeding 2023 levels. This volume affected prices throughout the summer.
The graphs below show both a 20-year and 10-year time horizon for both single family homes and condos that are on the market (active) or sold.
Months of Inventory - 20 Years vs. 10 Years
This metric tells us how hot the markets are currently, i.e. the rate of change. If no new listings were added, this metric tells us how long it would take to sell all the remaining active homes. Five to six months is considered a buyer's market, three to six is a neutral market, and anything less than three is a seller's market. In the last 10 years, we have been in a Seller's Market except for condos in the year of 2020, when the COVID Pandemic hit.
% Over Asking vs. DOM - 12 Months Look Back
How much over asking a home sold for and how fast it was sold, i.e. Days On Market are the next two Key Performance Indicators (KPIs). These show how much demand there is for SF Bay Area single family homes and condos.
Sales price to list price peaked in April 2024 for single family homes and condos while days on market bottomed in May at 16 days and have been increasing. Despite these latest trends, the average days on market are below 30 days and sales prices going over asking clearly indicate a strong seller's market.
Sales Price - 20 Years vs. 10 Years
In general, single family home prices have doubled every 10 years in the SF Bay Area since the 1980s. Due to the local economy of the SF Bay Area, we anticipate these values to remain high, especially as inventory levels are still near historic lows and our geographical constraints on building more homes.
However, condos sales prices have been fairly stagnant over the last two years as most home owners are wanting more space.
Prices are hitting a seasonal lull currently but we anticipate these to go up with the low interest rates and companies demanding workers to return to the office. In the past three years, there was a peak in pricing during the summer of 2022 and the spring of 2024.
Please reach out to schedule your free consultation to discuss your home price or home search.
FED, Mortgage Rates & The Stock Market
Inflation and jobs continue to align to the FED's directive to achieve maximum employment and 2% inflation. As such, the CME Group is predicting the FED to LOWER interest rates multiple times by the end of the year.
Mortgage rates fell again from 6.4% to 6.25% for a 30-year fixed mortgage.
The S&P500 and most tech stocks are up year to date but July and August saw a pull back in stock prices.
Layoffs compared to the last two years are still relatively low.
When will the next Recession occur? Check out my infographics in this blog post for a brief primer. Then we can discuss the rest over our next coffee.
At KPeterson.realty, we know not every lender is created equal and we work with lenders who's rates today are around 5.25% for 10/6 ARMS. Our lenders also may value your RSUs better than others. Reach out and tap into our network.
How We Help Our Buyers
We work with the best lenders who are able to beat the current interest rates (some as low as 5.25% on a 10/6 ARM).
Search For Homes by customizing your financial situation before contacting a lender to determine what you can afford.
Investing or not sure which areas to look in? Explore Markets to generate reports that analyze a city by days on market, average home price, price per square foot, average number of bedrooms / bathrooms / square feet in YOUR price point.
How We Help Our Sellers
We have a $0 down / 0% renovation program in which you don't need to pay back for one year, giving you flexibility on when to sell. The goal is for every $1 spent on renovations to net (on average) a $2 to $4 return on investment. Every family has a unique real estate scenario based on their needs and circumstances. Feel free to schedule a consultation with me today.
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If you'd like a more specific valuation of your home, give me a call.
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