Mid-Peninsula Market Pulse — Week of July 31 – August 6, 2026

This week's pulse covers the ten Mid-Peninsula cities I track: Belmont, Burlingame, Foster City, Hillsborough, Menlo Park, Palo Alto, Redwood City, Redwood Shores, San Carlos, and San Mateo.

Local Market Activity (July 7 – August 6)

The Mid-Peninsula closed 143 homes in the last 30 days — 52 just this week. The typical home sold for $2.29M and went for 105% of asking, so sellers are still getting a premium over list. San Mateo and Redwood City led on volume, while Hillsborough and Palo Alto led on price.

This Week vs. the 30-Day Pace

Single-family stayed hot: 105 sold over the last 30 days at about 20 days on market and 106% of list. Condos and townhomes are steadier — 35 sold, roughly 36 days to sell at about 101% of list. This week's closings ran a touch above the 30-day pace on price for single-family and right in line for condos.

The Move Math

Here's what today's numbers mean for a move, using current medians and this week's 6.69% 30-year rate. (Payments are principal + interest, 20% down; taxes and insurance are on top.)

Trading up — condo to single-family:

• Median condo $1.08M → 20% down, finance 80%, P&I ≈ $5,570/month + HOA (many condo buyers are investors and all cash).

• Median single-family $2.77M → P&I ≈ $14,260/month (buyers today often put 40–50% down or pay all cash given rates and opportunity cost).

That's a monthly gap of about $8,690 in principal and interest between the two.

Downsizing at 55+ — don't forget Prop 19.

If you're 55 or older, Prop 19 lets you carry your existing low property-tax base to your next California home — up to three times, anywhere in the state. On a home you've owned for decades, that can mean keeping a tax bill tied to a $500–700K assessed value instead of today's price, often $20,000+ per year saved. It's one of the biggest reasons long-time owners can still afford to move.

The Macro Corner.

• Mortgage rates: The 30-year fixed averaged 6.69% this week, up from 6.66% a week ago and 6.63% a year ago; the 15-year eased to 6.01%.

• The Fed: Held the target range at 3.50–3.75% at the July 28–29 meeting, with three members preferring a hike. Next decision is September 15–16.

• Inflation: June CPI ran 3.5% year-over-year with core CPI at 2.6%. The Fed's preferred gauge, core PCE, sits higher at 3.3%.

• Wall Street: Stocks rallied to fresh records in early August — the Dow near 54,000 and the S&P 500 back above 7,700 — on strong earnings and momentum despite the Fed hold.

• Bottom line: Rates are holding in the high-6s and supply is still tight, so local prices are driven more by scarcity than by the headline rate.

Want Your Personal Move Math?

Want to know exactly what your home is worth and what your move math looks like? Get your personal estimate here.