March 2025: Real Estate Trends in the SF Bay Area from San Mateo's Top Realtors

Kevin Peterson
Apr 19
13 min read

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Executive Summary: Five SF Bay Area Counties Proprietary Market Analysis

In the last 45 days (March and April), the San Francisco Bay Area real estate market experienced notable shifts, with increased inventory levels and evolving buyer and seller dynamics across all counties. Here's a breakdown of the key trends:

📈 Market Overview

Inventory Increase: The region saw a rise in housing inventory we've not seen in over two years, providing buyers with more options and slightly easing the competitive landscape.
Price Adjustments: While some counties experienced price stabilization, others saw modest declines, reflecting a market adjusting to changing economic conditions.
Buyer Behavior: Buyers became more discerning, leveraging increased inventory to negotiate better deals and concessions from sellers.

County-Specific Highlights

San Mateo & Santa Clara

Record-High Prices: San Mateo's median sales price reached $1.96M, while Santa Clara's hit $1.9M, driven by limited supply and sustained demand.
Overbidding Trends: Homes in these counties often sold above list price, with average sales exceeding asking prices by 3%, reflecting competitive buyer behavior.

San Francisco

Market Cooling: The city witnessed a softening in home prices, with median values decreasing from $1.3M in 2024 to $1.25M in early 2025.
Extended Time on Market: Properties averaged 45 days on the market, up from 30 days previously, indicating a slowdown in sales velocity.
Investment Opportunities: The cooling market presented opportunities for investors, particularly in neighborhoods like Outer Sunset and Bayview, where price corrections were more pronounced.

Alameda & Contra Costa

Inventory Growth: The East Bay experienced an increase in housing supply, with Alameda and Contra Costa counties seeing months of inventory rise to approximately 2.8 months, up from less than one month during the pandemic years.
Price Stabilization: Home prices in these counties showed signs of stabilizing, offering a more balanced market for buyers and sellers.

In this table, we summarize the price changes MoM (i.e. February versus March) and YoY (i.e. March 2025 versus March 2024).

County	Single-Family Homes	Condos
San Mateo	Median Price: ~$1.96M MoM: ▲ Slight increase YoY: ▲ ~7%	Median Price: ~$905,000 MoM: ~Flat YoY: ▲ Slight uptick
Santa Clara	Median Price: ~$1.84M MoM: ▲ ~1.7% YoY: ▲ 5.9%	Median Price: ~$845,000 MoM: ~Flat YoY: ▲ Slight increase
San Francisco	Median Price: $1,422,500 MoM: ▼ ~Flat YoY: ▼ 9.7%	Median Price: $990,000 MoM: ▼ Slight drop YoY: ▼ 8.8%
Alameda	Median Price: ~$1.15M MoM: ▼ 2.5% YoY: ▲ 2.3%	Median Price: ~$699,000 MoM: ▼ Slight dip YoY: ~Flat
Contra Costa	Median Price: ~$785,000 MoM: ▼ 10.3% YoY: ▲ 2%	Median Price: ~$655,000 MoM: ▼ Slight dip YoY: ~Flat

Key Takeaways

Sellers: Peninsula (San Mateo county) and South Bay (Santa Clara county) are still hot for single family homes (SFH). East Bay saw corrections, especially Contra Costa.
Buyers: Condos across all counties are holding or softening = better negotiating power.
Investors: Condo cap rates are improving slightly as prices ease + DOM increases. SFHs in high-demand districts still hold premium pricing.

The charts below are month-over-month and year-over-year heat maps of pricing in the SF Bay Area. They are grouped by county and property type (Condo, Single Family Home, Townhouse). The metrics are Price per Square Foot, Days on Market, how many sold, and the List to Sales Price Ratio. We've now also included average square footage at each price level.

Green highlighted cells indicate items keeping prices up in comparison to previous month's metrics.
Red highlighted cells indicate the opposite, i.e downward pressure on sales price which favor buyers more.
Enlarge each county Heat Map by clicking on each of the images.

20-Year vs. 10-Year Appreciation

SF Bay Area Inventory Metrics

Active Listings

The overall number of homes available on the market. An increased inventory combined with a slower selling rate typically benefits buyers, whereas decreased inventory and a faster selling rate usually benefit sellers.

Inventory Levels
- Active Inventory Changes:
  - San Mateo: Single-family homes rose by 20%, while condos jumped 14%, indicating a shift toward a balanced market for condos.
  - Santa Clara: A 16% increase in single-family home inventory and 11% rise in condo inventory, both moving closer to a balanced market.
  - San Francisco: Both single-family homes and condos saw significant increases, with single-family home inventory rising by 22% and condos by 12%.
  - Alameda & Contra Costa: Moderate increases in single-family home inventory (7-8%) and larger increases in condo inventory (12%).
20-Year vs. 10-Year Inventory Levels
- Every year we see active and sold inventory go up then down, a predictable cadence. How high or low is dependent on the next metric, Months of Inventory or the rate of change in inventory being sold.
- In 2024, we saw historically low inventory levels (below 2,300 active single family home listings across the five counties); active inventory has now rebounded above 4,000 active listings. If this trend continues, there could be some downward pressure on sales prices due to the amount of supply being on. the market.
- The graphs below show both a 20-year and 10-year time horizon for both single family homes and condos that are on the market (active) versus sold.

In March and early April, more single-family homes have been listed on the market compared to the past two years, but they are not selling as rapidly. Meanwhile, condo inventories are increasing swiftly, reaching the second highest levels since COVID in recent years.

Months of Supply

Demand Indicators

% Over Asking vs. DOM (12-Month Look Back)

How much over asking a home sold for and how fast it was sold, i.e. Days On Market are the next two Key Performance Indicators (KPIs). These show how much demand there is for SF Bay Area single family homes and condos.

Days On Market measures how long it takes for homes to sell.

Buyers: Longer DOM gives more room for negotiation.
Sellers: Shorter DOM indicates strong interest.

In March, demand for single-family homes reached its highest point in 2025, but it has been slightly declining in April due to increased inventory and economic uncertainties discussed further below.

Pending Sales

Macroeconomics

Mortgage Rates

Month-over-Month Change:
Between February and March 2025, average 30-year fixed mortgage rates in the U.S. experienced a slight decrease, dropping from approximately 6.51% to 6.45%, a reduction of about 6 basis points. This modest decline reflects ongoing market adjustments amid economic uncertainties and policy shifts. CNET
Year-over-Year Change:

Why have rates been on a rollercoaster? Because of uncertainty by investors, from sovereign nations to giant hedge funds.

If uncertainty leads to a recession or slowdown: Investors usually flee to the safety of U.S. Treasuries (think: flight to safety). That demand drives Treasury yields down, which causes mortgage rates to fall. Example: COVID-19 crash in 2020 — rates dropped like a rock.

If uncertainty is inflation-driven or tied to geopolitical risks: Markets fear the Fed might need to keep rates higher for longer. That drives yields and mortgage rates up — even if the economy’s shaky. Example: War, trade tensions, or inflation spikes — rates don’t always go down.

Mortgage rates over the last year have been like trying to read a toddler’s mood in a grocery store — just when you think things are calming down, they scream about string cheese and flip the cart.

Spring 2024, rates were high — sitting above 7% — because inflation was still throwing tantrums and the Fed hadn’t started offering any juice (rate cuts) to calm things down.
Late 2024, the Fed handed out three rate cuts like peace offerings. Everyone expected mortgage rates to chill out and nap. But nope — they stayed cranky.
By early 2025, mortgage rates started climbing again (around 6.83% in April) — not because the economy was tanking, but due to rising global trade tensions and stubborn inflation. Investors got jittery, pulled money out of U.S. Treasury bonds, and rates shot up. Instead of seeking safety in 10-year Treasuries, many shifted into foreign government bonds, gold, the Swiss franc, and even cash, signaling a broader distrust in U.S. fiscal stability. It’s a classic case of: “Bad news doesn’t always mean cheaper money.” Sometimes the market just panics and acts like a toddler who skipped lunch and spotted a stranger holding their favorite toy.