Mid-Peninsula Market Pulse — Week of July 10–16, 2026

This week's read across the ten cities I watch — Belmont, Burlingame, Foster City, Hillsborough, Menlo Park, Palo Alto, Redwood City, Redwood Shores, San Carlos, and San Mateo.

Local Market Activity (June 16 – July 16)

The Mid-Peninsula closed 143 homes in the last 30 days — 50 of them just this week. The typical home sold for about $2.2M and went for 106% of asking, so sellers are still getting a premium over list. San Mateo led on volume by a wide margin (37 closings across both property types), while Hillsborough and Burlingame sat at the top of the price range.

This Week vs. the 30-Day Pace

Comparing this week's closings to the trailing 30-day trend: single-family prices ticked up — the week's median (about $2.99M) ran ahead of the 30-day pace (about $2.73M), with days-on-market and sale-to-list essentially unchanged. Condos softened a touch this week — a lower median, a slightly faster sale, and sale-to-list dipped just under asking (about 97%). Nothing dramatic: houses stayed hot while the condo side stayed measured.

The Move Math

Here's what today's numbers mean for a move, using current medians and this week's 6.55% 30-year rate. (Payments are principal + interest, 20% down; taxes and insurance are on top.)

Trading up — condo to single-family:

• Median condo ~$1.20M: with 20% down, runs ~$6,075/month in principal and interest, plus HOA (and many condo buyers here are investors paying all cash).

• Median single-family home ~$2.73M: 20%-down, runs ~$13,855/month P&I — though in practice today's buyers often put 40–50% down or pay all cash, given rates and the opportunity cost of financing.

• The gap between the two payments is roughly $7,780 a month.

Downsizing at 55+ — don't forget Prop 19

If you're 55 or older and selling a long-held home, Proposition 19 lets you carry your existing low property-tax base to your next California home — anywhere in the state, and you can do it up to three times. On a house you've owned for decades, that can mean keeping a tax bill tied to a $500–700K assessed value instead of today's market price — often a savings of $20,000 or more every year. For a lot of longtime owners, that single rule is the difference between staying put and finally making the move.

The Macro Corner

• Mortgage rates — 30-year fixed 6.55%, up from 6.49% last week and a touch below roughly 6.7% a year ago. 15-year at 5.93%. Rates ticked up for a second straight week.

  
  

• The Fed — target held at 3.50–3.75% since June. Next decision July 28–29; another hold is the market's bet, though officials are leaning cautious with inflation still above target.

  
  

• Inflation — June CPI cooled to 3.5% year-over-year (core 2.6%, below expectations), but the Fed's preferred gauge, core PCE, was still hot at 3.4% in May. Mixed signals keep the Fed on hold.

  
  

• Wall Street — a mixed week: the Nasdaq rose about 1.7% and the S&P about 1.2% on a late rebound in chip and AI names, while the Dow slipped about 0.5% on higher oil and renewed U.S.–Iran tension.

  
  

• Bottom line — borrowing costs edged up and the Fed isn't cutting yet, but cooler consumer inflation keeps a fall move on the table. For now the backdrop is steady-to-slightly-tighter — and that's exactly why well-priced single-family homes keep closing over asking.

Want Your Personal Move Math?

Every home and situation is different. If you want your actual equity, payment, and Prop 19 picture run for your address, start here → https://www.kpeterson.realty/whats-my-home-worth