Mid-Peninsula Market Pulse — Week of August 28 – September 3, 2026

Here's this week's San Mateo County housing market read across the ten Mid-Peninsula cities I track: Belmont, Burlingame, Foster City, Hillsborough, Menlo Park, Palo Alto, Redwood City, Redwood Shores, San Carlos, and San Mateo.

Local Market Activity (August 4 – September 3)

The Mid-Peninsula closed 160 homes in the last 30 days — 63 just this week. The typical home sold for $2.25M and went for 105% of asking, so sellers are still getting a premium over list. Redwood City led on volume with 25 single-family closings, while Hillsborough set the ceiling at a $4.70M median; on the condo side, San Mateo was the busiest market.

Single-Family by Price Point

Splitting the 110 single-family sales by price tells the real story. Under $2M: 25 sold at 104% of list in about 29 days. The $2–3M band was the busiest lane — 44 sold at 111% of list in just 17 days. The $3–4.5M tier ran hottest on speed — 29 sold, 108% of list, 15 days. Even $4.5M+ held firm: 12 sold at 107% of list in 11 days. Over-asking isn't just an entry-level story here — it runs all the way up the price ladder.

This Week vs. the 30-Day Pace

Single-family homes are still the engine: 110 sold over the trailing 30 days at roughly 19 days on market and 108% of list. Condos and townhomes are the calmer lane — 50 sold at about 99% of list. The condo average days-on-market is dragged up by a couple of long-sitting units — one sat 124 days — but the median condo still took about 53 days, so it's a steady pace, not a sudden shift. This week's single-family closings skewed a touch higher-priced (a $2.69M median vs. $2.65M over the full 30 days), a mild high-end tilt rather than a real jump.

The Move Math

Here's what today's numbers mean for a move, using current medians and this week's 6.71% 30-year rate. (Payments are principal + interest, 20% down; taxes and insurance are on top.)

Trading up — condo to single-family:

• Median condo $1.03M → 20% down, finance 80%: P&I ≈ $5,346/month plus HOA (many condo buyers here are investors paying all cash).

• Median single-family $2.65M → P&I ≈ $13,694/month (trade-up buyers today often put 40–50% down or pay all cash given rates and opportunity cost).

That's a monthly gap of about $8,350 in principal and interest between the two.

Downsizing at 55+ — don't forget Prop 19.

If you're 55 or older, Prop 19 lets you carry your existing low property-tax base to your next California home — up to three times, anywhere in the state. On a home you've owned for decades, that can mean keeping a tax bill tied to a $500–700K assessed value instead of today's market price, often saving $20,000+ per year. For many longtime owners, that single rule is what makes downsizing pencil out.

The Macro Corner.

• Mortgage rates: The 30-year fixed averaged 6.71% this week (6.66% a week ago, 6.50% a year ago); the 15-year sits at 6.04%.

• The Fed: The target range holds at 3.50–3.75%, unchanged since December. The next decision lands September 16.

• Inflation: Headline CPI is running 2.7% year-over-year, while core PCE — the Fed's preferred gauge — sits at 2.9%.

• Wall Street: Stocks logged a winning week — the S&P 500 and Dow each rose about 0.5% and the Nasdaq gained 0.9%.

• Bottom line: Rates ticked up and remain a touch above last year, and the Fed is on hold — but tight local supply, not the rate, is what's driving Mid-Peninsula prices.

Want Your Personal Move Math?

Every home and situation is different. If you want your own numbers — what your place would sell for today and what trading up or downsizing actually costs — run your home's value here.