Mid-Peninsula Market Pulse — Week of July 3–9, 2026

This week's read across the ten cities I watch — Belmont, Burlingame, Foster City, Hillsborough, Menlo Park, Palo Alto, Redwood City, Redwood Shores, San Carlos, and San Mateo.

Local Market Activity (June 9 – July 9)

The Mid-Peninsula closed 152 homes in the last 30 days, and the pace hasn't let up — 41 of those closed just this week. The typical home sold for $2.37M and went for 106% of asking, so sellers are still getting a premium over list.

San Mateo and Redwood City continue to do the heavy lifting on volume, while Palo Alto and Hillsborough carry the top of the price range.

This Week vs. the 30-Day Pace

Comparing this week's closings to the trailing 30-day trend is the clearest way to see where things are heading. This week ran hotter than the month's average on every measure — median price, single-family median, and sale-to-list all ticked up. Part of that is a higher-end mix of homes closing this week, but the direction is real: demand is firm.

The Move Math

Here's what today's numbers actually mean for a move, using this week's medians and this week's 6.43% 30-year rate. (Payments are principal + interest, 20% down; taxes and insurance are on top.)

Trading up — condo to single-family:

• Median condo, $1.30M: 20% down ($260K), finance $1.04M → about $6,525/month + HOA. Many buyers are investors and all cash.

• Median single-family, $2.68M: 20% down ($536K), finance $2.14M → about $13,450/month. Buyers today on average are putting 40-50% down or going all cash due to mortgage rates and opportunity costs.

Downsizing at 55+ — don't forget Prop 19:

If you're 55 or older and selling a long-held home, Proposition 19 lets you carry your existing (low) property-tax base to your next California home — up to three times, anywhere in the state. On a home you've owned for decades, that can mean keeping a tax bill tied to a $500–700K assessed value instead of being reassessed at today's price — often $20,000+ in property-tax savings every year. For many downsizers, that's worth more than the sale price difference.

Calculate Your Own Numbers

The Macro Corner

• Mortgage rates — 30-year fixed 6.43%, down from 6.49% last week and 6.67% a year ago. 15-year at 5.79%. A seven-week low.

• The Fed — Target held at 3.50–3.75% in June. Next decision July 28–29; a hold is the market's bet.

• Inflation — May CPI +4.2% year-over-year; core PCE 3.4%. Still above the Fed's 2% goal.

• Wall Street — Big week: the Dow hit a record (~53,000), S&P +1.8%, Nasdaq +2.1%, on softer June jobs data.

• Bottom line — Money is a touch cheaper than a year ago, and it's pulling buyers back in — which is exactly why homes are still closing over asking here.

Want Your Personal Move Math?

Every home and situation is different. If you want your actual equity, payment, and Prop 19 picture run for your address, start here → kpeterson.realty/whats-my-home-worth.