April 2025: Real Estate Trends in the SF Bay Area from San Mateo's Top Realtors

Kevin Peterson
May 16
14 min read

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Executive Summary: Five SF Bay Area Counties Proprietary Market Analysis

🔥 Sellers: The Market Is Still in Your Favor (For Now)

Where it's hottest:

San Mateo & Santa Clara Counties (SFRs & Townhomes):
- Homes priced $1.3M–$3.5M are flying off the market.
- Selling at 106%–110% of asking with DOM under 20 days.
- Townhomes under $1.5M are moving especially fast.
San Francisco (Entry-Level Homes):
- Condos under $800K and SFRs under $3M are seeing strong buyer interest.
- Sale-to-list ratios around 105%.

Key stats:

SFRs still average 107% sale-to-list price.
Average DOM: 19 days (unchanged from March).
Months of Inventory: 1.9 – deep in seller's market territory.

🧊 Buyers: Be Strategic — Opportunity Is Growing

Where deals are happening:

San Francisco (Luxury Homes & Condos):
- $4.5M+ SFRs and $1.8M+ condos = soft pricing, longer DOM, under 100% sale-to-list.
Contra Costa & Alameda Counties (Condos & High-End SFRs):
- Sluggish performance above $2.5M.
- Condos between $800K–$1.4M are lingering and negotiable.
Alameda County (Mid to High-End Condos):
- Weak list-to-sale ratios and longer DOM.
- More options and more leverage for buyers.

📊 Big Picture Trends: What You Need to Know

Inventory is up...

Active listings highest since mid-2022 for SFRs.
Condo inventory surged – reaching early-pandemic levels.
More listings = more choices for buyers, but demand is still strong for homes under $3.5M.

Appreciation over the last 10 years:

SFRs: +8.2% annually
Condos: +4.0% annually
- Slower growth tied to HOA costs, investor returns, and post-pandemic preferences for space.

In this table, we summarize the price changes MoM (i.e. February versus March) and YoY (i.e. March 2025 versus March 2024).

County	Single-Family Homes	Condos
San Mateo	Median Price: ~$1.96M	Median Price: ~$905,000
	MoM: ▲ 0.5%, YoY: ▲ 7.0%	MoM: ~Flat YoY: ▲ 1.1%
Santa Clara	Median Price: ~$1.84M	Median Price: ~$845,000
	MoM: ▲ 2.2%, YoY: ▲ 5.9%	MoM: ~Flat, YoY: ▲ 0.6%
San Francisco	Median Price: $1.25M	Median Price: $990,000
	MoM: ▼ 3.8%, YoY: ▼ 9.7%	MoM: ▼ 2.0%, YoY: ▼ 8.8%
Alameda	Median Price: ~$1.15M	Median Price: ~$699,000
	MoM: ▼ 2.5%, YoY: ▲ 2.3%	MoM: ▼ 1.4%, YoY: ~Flat
Contra Costa	Median Price: ~$785,000	Median Price: ~$655,000
	MoM: ▼ 10.3%, YoY: ▲ 2.0%	MoM: ▼ 3.6%, YoY: ~Flat

💡 Key Takeaways

If you're a seller:

SFR in the $1.3M–$3.5M range? You’re golden. Prep it, price it right, and it’ll move fast.
Selling a condo? Expect more competition — standout marketing and pricing are critical.
Luxury home? Prepare to be patient or flexible on price.

If you're a buyer:

Looking under $2.5M? Be ready to compete — especially for updated SFRs, townhomes, and well-located condos.
Looking above $3M or buying a condo? You’ve got leverage — negotiate hard, and time is on your side.

The charts below are month-over-month and year-over-year heat maps of pricing in the SF Bay Area. They are grouped by county and property type (Condo, Single Family Home, Townhouse). The metrics are Price per Square Foot, Days on Market, how many sold, and the List to Sales Price Ratio. We've now also included average square footage at each price level.

Green highlighted cells indicate items keeping prices up in comparison to previous month's metrics.
Red highlighted cells indicate the opposite, i.e downward pressure on sales price which favor buyers more.
Enlarge each county Heat Map by clicking on each of the images.

🟢 Best Markets for Sellers

🔥 San Mateo County – Single-Family Homes & Townhomes

Why: DOM down across the board; homes between $1.3M–$3.5M selling 106%–110% of list
Townhomes in the $950K–$1.5M range are also flying off the shelf with <15 DOM

🔥 Santa Clara County – Single-Family Homes

Why: 836 homes sold, median $1,256/SqFt, avg. 10 DOM, sale-to-list up to 110%
Hot Price Ranges: $1.3M–$3.5M — move-up buyers and families are still competing hard
Also performing: Townhomes $800K–$1.5M (short DOM, 106%+ sale-to-list)

🔥 San Francisco County – Entry-Level Condos & SFRs

Why: <$800K condos selling at 105% of asking, and SFRs under $3M selling fast
Ideal for: Sellers of updated, well-located condos and homes under $2.5M–$3M

🔵 Best Markets for Buyers

🧊 San Francisco County – Luxury SFRs & Condos

Why: Homes $4.5M+ and condos $1.8M+ showing long DOM, softening $/SqFt, and list-to-sale ratios under 100%
Opportunity: Buyers can negotiate on trophy properties and wait for price adjustments

🧊 Contra Costa County – Condos & High-End SFRs

Why: Entry-level SFRs are strong, but condos and homes above $2.5M show stagnant or falling price/SqFt
Opportunity: Condos priced $800K–$1.3M are lingering longer and offer more room for negotiation

🧊 Alameda County – High-End & Mid-Tier Condos

Why: DOM remains elevated for condos, especially $1.3M+, with flat or declining list-to-sale ratios
Opportunity: Buyers in the $900K–$1.4M condo market can find less competition and negotiate terms

20-Year vs. 10-Year Appreciation

SF Bay Area Inventory Metrics

Active Listings

The overall number of homes available on the market. An increased inventory combined with a slower selling rate typically benefits buyers, whereas decreased inventory and a faster selling rate usually benefit sellers.

Inventory Levels
- Active Inventory Changes:
  - San Mateo: Single-family homes rose by 20%, while condos jumped 14%, indicating a shift toward a balanced market for condos.
  - Santa Clara: A 16% increase in single-family home inventory and 11% rise in condo inventory, both moving closer to a balanced market.
  - San Francisco: Both single-family homes and condos saw significant increases, with single-family home inventory rising by 22% and condos by 12%.
  - Alameda & Contra Costa: Moderate increases in single-family home inventory (7-8%) and larger increases in condo inventory (12%).
20-Year vs. 10-Year Inventory Levels
- Every year we see active and sold inventory go up then down, a predictable cadence. How high or low is dependent on the next metric, Months of Inventory or the rate of change in inventory being sold.
- In 2024, we saw historically low inventory levels (below 2,300 active single family home listings across the five counties); active inventory has now rebounded above 4,000 active listings. If this trend continues, there could be some downward pressure on sales prices due to the amount of supply being on. the market.
- The graphs below show both a 20-year and 10-year time horizon for both single family homes and condos that are on the market (active) versus sold.

🏡 Single-Family Homes – April 2025

Active listings increased to the highest level since mid-2022, but not yet near pre-COVID highs.
Sales volume has remained steady, creating a more balanced yet competitive market.
The gap between active and sold listings is wider than in Spring 2022, but still tighter than the big gaps seen in 2018–2020.
Interpretation: Inventory is rising, giving buyers a few more options, but strong demand (especially in the $1.3M–$2.5M range) is still absorbing listings quickly. This supports the low DOM and 107% sale-to-list price observed in April.

🏢 Condominiums – April 2025

Active condo listings have surged, reaching levels not seen since mid-2020 and early 2021.
Sales volume remains relatively low, causing a widening gap between available and sold units.
The result is a clear buyer's market dynamic—condos are sitting longer and sellers have less leverage.
This aligns with the 3.9 months of inventory and weaker sale-to-list ratios seen in other charts, confirming that buyers are more cautious or selective with condos.

🧠 Final Takeaway

Sellers of single-family homes are still in a strong position, but rising inventory means pricing and presentation matter more than ever.
Condo sellers face headwinds: more competition and fewer buyers pulling the trigger. Strategic pricing and standout marketing will be key to getting into contract.

Months of Supply

Demand Indicators

% Over Asking vs. DOM (12-Month Look Back)

How much over asking a home sold for and how fast it was sold, i.e. Days On Market are the next two Key Performance Indicators (KPIs). These show how much demand there is for SF Bay Area single family homes and condos.

Days On Market measures how long it takes for homes to sell.

Buyers: Longer DOM gives more room for negotiation.
Sellers: Shorter DOM indicates strong interest.

🏡 Single-Family Homes – April 2025

DOM stayed flat at 19 days, holding steady from March and representing the fastest sales pace since May 2024.
Sale-to-List Price Ratio stayed strong at 107%, reflecting continued high demand and multiple-offer situations in the single-family space.
Unlike condos, single-family homes never dipped below 103%, even during the winter, showing much more resilient demand year-round.

🏢 Condominiums – April 2025

DOM improved to 35 days, the fastest pace since September 2024 and a big drop from the peak of 61 days in January 2025.
Sale-to-List Price Ratio rebounded to 101.5%, the highest point in a full year—suggesting renewed competition and bidding on condos.
Compared to the slow, buyer-favorable winter (Nov–Jan), April shows clear signs of a condo market recovery, with faster sales and stronger pricing power for sellers.

Pending Sales

Macroeconomics

Mortgage Rates

Month-over-Month Change:
Rate Trends: The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate hovered around 6.7% to 6.8% for much of April, reflecting a slight increase from the previous month. For instance, on April 25, the rate was reported at 6.90% , while by April 28, it dipped slightly to 6.769% .
While economic uncertainty often leads to lower mortgage rates due to a flight to safety, factors like inflation, Fed policy, and Treasury yields can counterbalance this effect. In April 2025, inflation concerns and the Fed's stance on tightening monetary policy contributed to higher mortgage rates despite the broader economic uncertainty.