May 2025: Real Estate Trends in the SF Bay Area from San Mateo's Top Realtors

Kevin Peterson
12 hours ago
13 min read

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Executive Summary: Five SF Bay Area Counties Proprietary Market Analysis

The Bay Area real estate market in May 2025 is showing clear signs of divergence between property types and price points. While single-family homes remain competitive, condos and townhomes are entering more neutral or buyer-leaning territory as inventory builds and days on market stretch. Mortgage rates hovering near 6.9% continue to pressure affordability, especially for first-time buyers and entry-level properties.

Despite higher inventory across all property types, median home prices largely held steady, especially for single-family homes in core markets like Santa Clara and San Mateo counties, which remain top-performing for sellers. Meanwhile, San Francisco’s market continues to soften, particularly in the condo sector, where both price and buyer urgency are slipping.

In this table, we summarize the price changes MoM (i.e. May versus April) and YoY (i.e. 2025 versus 2024).

County	Single-Family Homes	Condos
San Mateo	Median Price: ~$1.92M MoM: ▼ 0.5% YoY: ▲ 5.6%	Median Price: ~$899,000 MoM: ▼ 0.7% YoY: ▲ 0.9%
Santa Clara	Median Price: ~$1.88M MoM: ▲ 2.1% YoY: ▲ 4.2%	Median Price: ~$850,000 MoM: ▲ 0.6% YoY: ▲ 1.0%
San Francisco	Median Price: ~$1.22M MoM: ▼ 2.4% YoY: ▼ 2.4%	Median Price: ~$965,000 MoM: ▼ 2.8% YoY: ▼ 5.1%
Alameda	Median Price: ~$1.13M MoM: ▼ 1.7% YoY: ▲ 1.5%	Median Price: ~$685,000 MoM: ▼ 2.0% YoY: ▼ 1.4%
Contra Costa	Median Price: ~$795,000 MoM: ▲ 1.3% YoY: ▲ 1.0%	Median Price: ~$660,000 MoM: ▲ 0.8% YoY: ▲ 0.7%

What This Means for Buyers

Leverage is growing—especially in the condo and townhome segments across San Francisco, Santa Clara, and Contra Costa counties.
Single-family homes still sell fast and over asking in the $1.3M–$2.8M range—come prepared with clean offers and aggressive terms if shopping there.
If you're rate-sensitive, this is the time to negotiate pricing or seller credits, especially on properties with 30+ days on market.

What This Means for Sellers

Single-family sellers in hot zones (Santa Clara, San Mateo, Contra Costa counties) are still in control—but only with smart pricing and strong prep.
Overpriced condos or townhomes are sitting longer, especially above $1.3M—realistic pricing and standout presentation are essential.
If you're sitting on equity, now may be a good time to sell before inventory rises further or rates cool the market more.

What This Means for Investors

Condos and townhomes under $800K in Alameda and Contra Costa counties are ripe for value-add, rental conversion, or cashflow strategies.
The single-family home sweet spot ($1.3M–$2.8M) continues to offer fast resale velocity—great for well-timed flips.
SF multifamily and luxury condo product is entering bargain territory—opportunities for discount acquisitions are emerging if you're patient and liquid.

The charts below are month-over-month and year-over-year heat maps of pricing in the SF Bay Area. They are grouped by county and property type (Condo, Single Family Home, Townhouse). The metrics are Price per Square Foot, Days on Market, how many sold, and the List to Sales Price Ratio. We've now also included average square footage at each price level.

Green highlighted cells indicate items keeping prices up in comparison to previous month's metrics.
Red highlighted cells indicate the opposite, i.e downward pressure on sales price which favor buyers more.
Enlarge each county Heat Map by clicking on each of the images.

SF Bay Area Real Estate Market Matrix - May 2025

County	Property Type	Market Type	Best Price Points for Sellers	Best Price Points for Buyers
San Mateo	Condos	⚖️ Neutral	$800K–$1.3M (DOM ↓, List-to-Sale ~102%)	<$800K (PPSF rising but DOM still elevated)
	SFR	✅ Strong Seller	$1.3M–$3.5M (PPSF up, DOM short, 105–108% list-to-sale)	<$800K (DOM = 81 days, slower-moving)
	Townhomes	✅ Strong Seller	$800K–$1.3M & $1.3M–$2M (DOM < 25 days, 104–106%)	N/A
Santa Clara	Condos	🛑 Buyer-Leaning	N/A	$1.3M+ (DOM 70+ days, weaker list-to-sale)
	SFR	✅ Strong Seller	$1.3M–$3.5M (High volume, DOM ↓, 105–107%)	<$800K (DOM 96, flat PPSF)
	Townhomes	✅ Seller	$1.3M–$1.8M (DOM = 28, 105% list-to-sale)	<$800K (DOM = 136, price softening)
Alameda	Condos	⚖️ Neutral	<$800K (DOM = 40, 108% list-to-sale)	$800K–$1.3M (flat YoY, DOM elevated)
	SFR	✅ Seller	$1.3M–$3.5M (DOM = 26–32 days, strong over-list sales)	$800K–$1.3M (DOM = 269, weak YoY price growth)
	Townhomes	⚖️ Neutral	$800K–$1.3M (DOM = 43, 102% list-to-sale)	<$800K (DOM = 75, slower moving)
Contra Costa	Condos	✅ Seller	$800K–$1.3M (DOM = 30, 102% list-to-sale)	$1.3M+ (higher DOM, less volume)
	SFR	✅ Strong Seller	<$800K (DOM = 29, PPSF +243% YoY volume increase)	$3M+ (DOM increases sharply, 96–99% list-to-sale)
	Townhomes	🛑 Buyer	N/A	All price points showing softness
San Francisco	Condos	🛑 Buyer	N/A	<$800K & $1.3M–$2M (DOM 49–52 days, price softening)
	SFR	⚖️ Mixed	$2.8M–$4.8M (DOM = 15–21, 107–109% list-to-sale)	<$1M (DOM = 113+, lowest PPSF)
	Townhomes	⚖️ Neutral	<$800K (DOM = 25, 103% list-to-sale)	$800K–$1.3M (DOM = 31, price softening MoM)

20-Year vs. 10-Year Appreciation

SF Bay Area Inventory Metrics

Active Listings

The overall number of homes available on the market. An increased inventory combined with a slower selling rate typically benefits buyers, whereas decreased inventory and a faster selling rate usually benefit sellers.

Single-Family Homes – May 2025

Active listings increased compared to April—reaching the highest point in over a year. Inventory growth in May signals early signs of a market shift—from ultra-competitive to more balanced.
Sales volume held steady, indicating demand is still absorbing inventory, but not fast enough to keep pace with the new supply.

Compared to Historical Norms:

Nowhere near the 2008–2011 glut, when actives drastically outpaced sales.
Sales are holding closer to 2021–2022 levels, but we’re trending upward in inventory like in mid-2018—a sign the market is loosening for buyers.

Condominiums – May 2025

Active listings surged to one of the highest levels in the past 5 years. April had fewer active listings and a slightly higher absorption rate.
Sales volume did not rise proportionately, widening the gap and putting pressure on sellers. The inventory-to-sales imbalance in May signals a cooling condo market, especially in urban centers.

Compared to Historical Norms:

We are now approaching 2020-2021 inventory levels, but with less buyer urgency.
The last time we saw this level of separation between condo listings and sales was early COVID—suggesting buyers are cautious, price-sensitive, or waiting for rate drops.

Final Takeaway:

Segment	May 2025 Status	Trend vs April	Long-Term Comparison
Single family homes	Active listings rising, demand steady	Slight cooling	Still strong vs post-2008, but watch for softening
Condos	Listings high, sales flat	Buyers gaining leverage	Resembles early 2020 dynamics—growing oversupply

Months of Supply

Demand Indicators

% Over Asking vs. DOM (12-Month Look Back)

How much over asking a home sold for and how fast it was sold, i.e. Days On Market are the next two Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) for our SF bay area real estate trends. These show how much demand there is for SF Bay Area single family homes and condos.

Days On Market measures how long it takes for homes to sell.

Buyers: Longer DOM gives more room for negotiation.
Sellers: Shorter DOM indicates strong interest.

🏡 Single-Family Homes – May 2025

Homes are still selling 7–8% over asking on average, with strong competition in the $1.3M–$2.8M range.
Days on market ticked up slightly (19 → 21), but demand remains high—well-priced homes are moving fast.

🏢 Condominiums – May 2025

Sale-to-list ratio dipped slightly (~101% → 100.8%), showing buyers are negotiating more.
Days on market increased (36 → 38), signaling continued buyer hesitation in higher-priced urban condos.

Pending Sales

Macroeconomics

Mortgage Rates

Month-over-Month Change:
In May 2025, 30‑year fixed mortgage rates edged higher, bouncing between 6.76% and 6.89%, before settling around 6.85% by June 5. Early-month rates mirrored April levels, but climbed mid- and late-May to the highest since February—driven by rising Treasury yields, fiscal uncertainty following a Moody’s downgrade, and sticky inflation. Despite a minor dip in early June, rates remain elevated near the 7% mark.