Mid-Peninsula Market Pulse — Week of August 7–13, 2026

Here's your weekly read on the Mid-Peninsula housing market — Belmont, Burlingame, Foster City, Hillsborough, Menlo Park, Palo Alto, Redwood City, Redwood Shores, San Carlos, and San Mateo.

Local Market Activity (July 14 – August 13)

The Mid-Peninsula closed 140 homes in the last 30 days — 50 just this week. The typical home sold for $2,325,000 and went for 105% of asking, so sellers are still getting a premium over list.

Palo Alto led on volume with 22 single-family closings, while Hillsborough topped the price charts with a single-family median near $8.9M.

Single-Family by Price Point

Over the last 30 days, single-family homes sold over asking at every price level. Under $2M: 23 sold at 103% of list in about 25 days. The $2–3M band was the busiest — 30 sold at 102% of list in roughly 28 days. The $3–4.5M tier ran hottest: 27 sold at 113% of list in just 10 days. Even $4.5M+ held up — 19 sold at 109% of list over about 34 days.

Over-asking isn't just an entry-level story here — it runs all the way up the price ladder.

This Week vs. the 30-Day Pace

Single-family homes are still moving fast — 99 sold over the last 30 days at about 107% of list in 24 days. Condos and townhomes closed 41 sales at 100% of list. The condo average of 35 days looks slow, but that's skewed by one unit that sat for 164 days — the typical condo actually sold in about 21 days. This week's single-family closings (about $2.85M median) came in right in line with the 30-day median of $2.88M, so no real shift in the mix.

The Move Math

Here's what today's numbers mean for a move, using current medians and this week's 6.67% 30-year rate. (Payments are principal + interest, 20% down; taxes and insurance are on top.)

Trading up — condo to single-family:

• Median condo $1,135,000 → 20% down, finance 80% ($908,000): P&I ≈ $5,841/month plus HOA (many condo buyers here are investors paying all cash).

• Median single-family $2,880,000 → finance 80% ($2,304,000): P&I ≈ $14,821/month (single-family buyers today often put 40–50% down or pay all cash given rates and opportunity cost).

That's roughly a $8,980-per-month jump in principal and interest to move from the typical condo to the typical single-family home.

Downsizing at 55+ — don't forget Prop 19.

If you're 55 or older, Prop 19 lets you carry your existing low property-tax base to your next California home — up to three times, anywhere in the state. On a long-held home, that can mean keeping a tax bill tied to a $500–700K assessed value instead of today's price — often $20,000+ per year in savings. It's one of the biggest reasons long-time owners can afford to make a move.

The Macro Corner.

• Mortgage rates: the 30-year fixed is 6.67% this week (down from 6.69% last week; 6.58% a year ago); the 15-year is 5.96%.

• The Fed: held its target range at 3.50%–3.75% on July 29 and next meets September 15–16. Cooler inflation has trimmed the odds of another hike.

• Inflation: headline CPI ran 3.4% year-over-year in July; core PCE was 3.3% in June — both easing but still above the Fed's 2% target.

• Wall Street: the S&P 500 hit fresh records, clearing 7,800 for the first time on softer CPI and PPI readings.

• Bottom line: rates are drifting lower and stocks are at records, but tight local supply — not rates — is what's driving Mid-Peninsula prices.

Want Your Personal Move Math?

Every home and situation is different. For a custom estimate on your home's value and what a move would really look like, start here: kpeterson.realty/whats-my-home-worth.