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The Data-Driven Realtor – Leveraging advanced analytics, I provide a proprietary scattergram analysis to give you unparalleled insights into your specific home or market, ensuring every decision is data-backed and strategic.
Home Renovation Advisor – Whether you're planning a high-end renovation or managing contractor relations, I'm here to guide you with expert advice to maximize your investment and streamline the process.
Exclusive Off-Market Access – I proactively search for hidden opportunities, knocking on doors and making personal calls each week to uncover off-market properties that meet your unique criteria.
Financial Strategist – With over 20 years of experience in real estate investing, lending, and rehabbing, I specialize in navigating financing and tax strategies to help clients secure favorable rates, increase profits, and preserve wealth for themselves and beneficiaries.
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Executive Summary
Over the last 10 years, sales volumes typically drop going from September to October. However, in October 2024, we saw a rare uptick driven by September’s lowest mortgage rates in 20 months. Single-family homes sold in 23 days at 106% of the asking price, while condos moved in 37 days at 100.9% of asking. Sellers jumped on the opportunity to list and buy new properties, but as rates climbed in October, fewer homes were listed, keeping prices strong.
Looking ahead to November, holiday-season inventory usually drops 15-30%, which could slow competition and prices amid higher mortgage rates and economic uncertainty post-election.
KEY TAKE AWAYS...
SALES PRICES? Competition was fierce with more sellers becoming buyers, resulting in 10-year appreciation rates almost 10% for single family homes and 5% for condos.
SALES VOLUME? 17% increase in SF Bay Area single family home and condo sales.
MORTGAGE RATES? Rates shot up from 6.26% to 7.09% due to worries of inflation returning and the fear, uncertainty, and doubt of the economy outlook post election.
Is now a good time to sell or buy?
For well-marketed and well-priced homes, expect multiple offers.
Buyers will find a higher proportion of motivated sellers in November. Sellers will also have less competition and be able to test their marketing.
Check out two of my blogs for how to sell your home in a high interest rate environment and 6 key questions to ask when selling your home in 2024.
Off Market Properties:
San Mateo (Aragon) (1,530 sqft) - 3 bed, 2 bath, 1-car garage
San Mateo (Aragon) (2,870 sqft) - 3 bed, 2.5 bath, 2-car garage
San Mateo (San Mateo Knolls) (2,300 sqft) - 4 bed, 3 bath, 2-car garage
San Mateo (Beresford) (1,100 sqft) - 3 bed, 1 bath, 1-car garage
San Mateo (4 PLEX) - Two 1 bed, two studios
Santa Cruz (East) - (2,100 sqft) 3 bed, 2 bath + ADU + 1-car garage on oversized lot
San Francisco (Candlestick Point) - (800 sqft) 1 bed, 1 bath, condo
....
Want the full list? Text me at 650.451.8763
Table of Contents:
How Are The San Francisco Bay Area Real Estate Markets?
October put an end to the three-month sales decline for the SF Bay Area. Supply is expected to decrease due to the holidays but now more-so due to the higher interest rates.
The below graphics show all five counties' and the *Mid-Peninsula's pending sales organized by home types and price levels. The price tiers under each home type that saw the highest volume of pending sales per county are highlighted in yellow, e.g. Alameda county sells the most condos at price points less than $800K, single family homes and townhouses between $800K to $1.3M. The color coding or heat map shows the changes in comparison to the prior month. Those that positively affect sales prices are highlighted in green, those that negatively affect are highlighted in red.
*Mid-Peninsula = Atherton, Belmont, Burlingame, Foster City, Hillsborough, Menlo Park, Palo Alto, Portola Valley, Redwood City, Redwood Shores, San Carlos, San Mateo, and Woodside.
SF Bay Area Real Estate Trends - Month over Month (MoM)
The charts below are month-by-month (and now year-over-year) heat maps of pricing in the SF Bay Area. They are grouped by county and property type (Condo, Single Family Home, Townhouse). The metrics are Price Per Square Foot, Days On Market, how many sold, and the List To Sales Price Ratio.
Green highlighted cells indicate items keeping prices up in comparison to previous month's metrics.
Red highlighted cells indicate the opposite, i.e downward pressure on sales price which favor Buyers more.
(Click on each county's data to make larger). Make county / location bigger to see the MoM data better.
BONUS - We are now incorporating year over year comparative months as well, e.g. October 2024 versus October 2023.
SF Bay Area Real Estate Trends - Year over Year (YoY)
Here's the data to support the year over year price growth (supply versus demand) we are currently experiencing.
Inventory - 20 Years vs. 10 Years
Every year we see active and sold inventory go up then down, a predictable cadence. How high or low is dependent on the next metric, Months of Inventory or the rate of change in inventory being sold.
We are above historically low inventory levels; active inventory is now exceeding 2023 levels.
The graphs below show both a 20-year and 10-year time horizon for both single family homes and condos that are on the market (active) or sold.
Months of Inventory - 20 Years vs. 10 Years
This metric tells us how hot the markets are currently, i.e. the rate of change. If no new listings were added, this metric tells us how long it would take to sell all the remaining active homes. Five to six months is considered a buyer's market, three to six is a neutral market, and anything less than three is a seller's market. In the last 10 years, we have been in a Seller's Market except for condos in the year of 2020, when the COVID Pandemic hit.
% Over Asking vs. DOM - 12 Months Look Back
How much over asking a home sold for and how fast it was sold, i.e. Days On Market are the next two Key Performance Indicators (KPIs). These show how much demand there is for SF Bay Area single family homes and condos.
Sales price to list price peaked in April 2024 for single family homes and condos while days on market bottomed in May at 16 days and have been increasing. Despite these latest trends, the average days on market are below 30 days and sales prices going over asking clearly indicate a strong seller's market.
Sales Price - 20 Years vs. 10 Years
In general, single family home prices have doubled every 10 years in the SF Bay Area since the 1980s. Due to the strength of the SF Bay Area economy, we anticipate these values to remain high, especially as inventory levels are still near historic lows and our geographical constraints on building more homes.
However, condos sales prices have been increasing less over the last few years as most home owners are wanting more space and less fees.
Please reach out to schedule your free consultation to discuss your home price or home search.
Mortgage Rates, The Stock Market, And More.
Inflation: "The annual inflation rate for the United States was 2.4% for the 12 months ending September, compared to the previous rate increase of 2.5%, according to U.S. Labor Department data published on October 10, 2024." (-US Inflation Calculator)
Employment: "The October jobs report marked the weakest pace of job creation since 2020." (-CNBC) while we also saw the lowest number of layoffs in tech since the Pandemic.
FED rate: The CME Group is predicting a 96.4% chance that the FED LOWERS interest rates again at their November 7th, 2024 meeting.
10 Year Treasury rate: Considered a marker for investor confidence in the U.S. economy, yields are moving up which puts upward pressure on mortgage rates in the short term.
Mortgage rates: October saw rates shoot up from 6.26% to 7.09% for a 30-year fixed mortgage due to the recent strong employment and inflation reports.
At KPeterson.realty, we know not every lender is created equal and we work with lenders who's rates today are around 5.25% for 10/6 ARMS. Our lenders also may value your RSUs better than others. Reach out and tap into our network.
Stock market: The S&P500 and most tech stocks are up year to date but the summer saw a pull back and flattening of stock price increases.
When will the next Recession occur? Check out my infographics in this blog post for a brief primer. Then we can discuss over our next coffee.
How We Help Our Buyers
We work with the best lenders who are able to beat the current interest rates (some as low as 5.25% on a 10/6 ARM).
Search For Homes by customizing your financial situation before contacting a lender to determine what you can afford.
Investing or not sure which areas to look in? Explore Markets to generate reports that analyze a city by days on market, average home price, price per square foot, average number of bedrooms / bathrooms / square feet in YOUR price point.
How We Help Our Sellers
We have a $0 down / 0% renovation program in which you don't need to pay back for one year, giving you flexibility on when to sell. The goal is for every $1 spent on renovations to net (on average) a $2 to $4 return on investment. Every family has a unique real estate scenario based on their needs and circumstances. Feel free to schedule a consultation with me today.
Click "What's My Home Worth" to find out the rough value of your home and automatically monitor it monthly. It also shows you various options for your equity (refi, home equity line or loan, etc).
If you'd like a more specific valuation of your home, give me a call.
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